Financial markets in Turkey are bracing for a potentially volatile decision after a court is scheduled to rule on whether to annul the 2023 congress of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), a case that could unseat its current leader, Özgür Özel. The uncertainty is contributing to rising concern among investors about political stability and economic policy implications.
The ruling under review challenges the legitimacy of the internal elections that made Özel party leader, citing alleged vote-buying and procedural irregularities. Should the court annul the congress, it could lead to a forced change in leadership or even reinstatement of the previous CHP leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
Markets have already responded. Turkish asset classes, including the stock index BIST 100, the lira, and bond yields, are seen under pressure as investors anticipate increased risk. Some reports indicate sharp sell-offs have occurred in anticipation of any ruling seen as undermining opposition autonomy.
Political analysts note this is one of several legal and institutional pressures on the CHP over the past year: dozens of officials and mayors from the party have been detained or removed, including high-profile figures such as Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. The government has defended its actions as legitimate legal processes, while opposition and civil groups view them as attempts to weaken political competition.
Investors are watching not just for the verdict but for its broader implications: whether the ruling will influence policy continuity, foreign investor confidence, and Turkey’s ability to attract inward capital in a time of inflationary pressure and currency volatility. The outcome could affect how markets price risk, particularly for government bonds and major equity sectors exposed to political uncertainty.
