According to the October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude oil production is projected to average 13.5 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, slightly above the agency’s previous estimates from September.
Data shows that U.S. oil production hit a record high of over 13.6 million barrels per day in July, exceeding earlier forecasts. While EIA anticipates a decline from this peak due to falling oil prices, it has still revised its production forecasts upward for the next two years.
The EIA continues to expect non-OPEC+ countries to drive global oil production growth. Despite OPEC+ announcing higher production targets, the agency believes actual output will remain below those goals—helping to prevent excessive inventory buildup and sharp drops in oil prices.
Looking ahead, the EIA forecasts that global oil and petroleum production will increase through 2026, resulting in a steady buildup of global inventories. This surplus is expected to push Brent crude prices down, averaging $62 per barrel in Q4 2025 and $52 per barrel in 2026.
On the natural gas front, Henry Hub spot prices are expected to rise from just under $3.00 per MMBtu in September to $4.10 per MMBtu in January, though this is around 50 cents lower than projected last month. The downward revision is due to expectations of higher U.S. natural gas output, which will lead to increased storage levels.
Regarding LNG exports, the U.S. is set to expand its capacity by 5 Bcf/d in 2025 and 2026 with the launch of Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3. As a result, total U.S. LNG exports are expected to reach 15 Bcf/d in 2025 and 16 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 12 Bcf/d in 2024.
