A report by AlJazira Capital states that Saudi Aramco’s net profit after minority interest is expected to decrease by 2.5 percent on a year-on-year basis and increase by 11.1 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis to 95.1 billion Saudi riyals ($25.36 billion) in the third quarter of 2025.
The outcome will be the addition of 2.6 percent to the adjusted net profit, which was recorded in Q2 2025.
The growth of the net income is anticipated to be boosted by the increase in crude oil production, a 4.8 percent gain quarter-on-quarter to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), and a bit higher average crude price.
The revenue is set to increase to SAR 426.2 billion quarter-on-quarter, with an upstream revenue increasing by 8.5 percent to SAR 172.4 billion due to an increase in the volume of crude oil sales and the oil prices.
Downstream revenue will grow by 2.3 percent quarter-on-quarter to SAR 253.2 billion due to the rising refining margins.
The average price of Brent crude in Q3 2025 was $66.5 per barrel, which increased by 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter.
AlJazira Capital forecasts that the Q3 2025 average realized price of crude oil in Aramco will be $67.1 per barrel.
Joint ventures and associate companies will remain in losses, and it is expected to have decreased further in Q2 2025.
The overall hydrocarbon production is expected to rise to 13.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboed) in Q3-25 compared to 12.8 mmboed in the last quarter, with OPEC+ declaring that it would substantially undo production reductions between July and September.
Gas production is likely to reduce by 11.7 billion standard cubic feet (bscf) from 11.9 bscf in Q2 2025, which is impacted by seasonality.
The brokerage reported that “We expect Aramco’s revenue and earnings to face continued pressure in 2025 due to a fall in oil prices. The topline is expected to decline 5.6% YoY to SAR 1.7 trillion and net income by 5.1% to SAR 374 billion.”
It forecasts the average oil price to be approximately $68 per barrel, which is approximately 14 percent less than that of last year.
AlJazira Capital has an “overweight” rating on Aramco stocks, and its target price will be SAR 29.6 per share.
