The global oil supply will be on a par with demand in 2026, data published by OPEC on Thursday showed, a forecast that contrasts with anticipated levels of a massive glut as projected by the International Energy Agency, among others.
The OPEC+, consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and other allies, will suspend the further increase in production during the first quarter of 2026, when a number of analysts expect oversupply.
OPEC stated that OPEC+ pumped 43.06 million barrels per day of crude in November, soared 43,000-bpd increase from the last month, as the recent output hike agreement took effect in a monthly report on Thursday.
The report estimates demand for OPEC+ crude will average 43 million bpd in 2026, will remain the same from the previous month, and will be close to the OPEC+ production in November. OPEC projects a demand of 42.6 million bpd of its crude in the first quarter.
According to a Reuters calculation based on the OPEC report, assuming OPEC+ continues pumping at the November 2026 rate, and that all other factors are held constant, the production would be 60,000 bpd above demand.
This contrasts with the perception of the IEA, which earlier on Thursday suggested that the global oil supply will exceed its demand by almost 3.84 million bpd, an amount nearly 4 percent of world demand in the coming year.
OPEC also maintained its 2025 and 2026 world oil demand growth forecasts and claimed in its report that the world economy was on a solid footing.
