Uday Kotak has warned that consumers and businesses should prepare for rising economic pressure as energy prices linked to tensions in West Asia begin impacting global markets.
Speaking at the CII Annual Business Summit 2026, Kotak said the full impact of the ongoing US-Iran conflict has not yet reached consumers, but cautioned that higher oil prices could soon drive up fuel and household costs across major economies, including India and the wider region.
“We have not seen the impact in the last two months of the Middle East war in terms of energy price transmission. It’s coming. And it’s coming big,” Kotak said.
His comments come as global markets remain focused on geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes. Any prolonged disruption could affect global energy supply chains and fuel prices, particularly for oil-importing economies.
Kotak said many consumers have not yet experienced the full impact because existing fuel inventories are temporarily cushioning price increases. However, he warned that rising transportation and logistics costs would eventually feed into the prices of everyday goods and services.
“The consumers have not felt the pressure at all,” he said, adding that lower-income households could face significant financial strain once higher fuel prices begin flowing through the economy.
He also stressed that countries should prepare proactively for economic uncertainty rather than remain complacent during periods of geopolitical instability.
“My view is we should prepare for paranoia before the event,” Kotak said. “We must prepare for the worst.”
India imports more than 85 percent of its crude oil requirements, making it particularly vulnerable to spikes in global energy prices. Kotak noted that while India’s current account remains manageable when oil prices stay near $60 per barrel, economic pressures could intensify if crude approaches $100 per barrel.
His remarks follow recent calls by Narendra Modi urging citizens to conserve fuel, reduce unnecessary foreign travel, and avoid non-essential spending amid rising global uncertainty.
Kotak added that countries should focus on moderating unnecessary consumption and maintaining financial discipline during volatile economic conditions.
The warning reflects broader concerns among policymakers and business leaders over the economic fallout of prolonged instability in West Asia and its potential impact on inflation, currencies, and consumer spending globally.
