Could Bitcoin be worth more than gold’s shadow within a decade? A new long-term valuation model is reigniting debate across crypto markets, suggesting that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could climb well beyond the $1 million mark by 2035. It is believed that this would be driven by institutional adoption, regulatory maturity, and Bitcoin’s growing role as a global store of value.
The forecast comes from a probability-based model developed by Gabriel Selby and Mark Pilipczuk of CF Benchmarks, a crypto data firm owned by exchange Kraken, according to reports by Decrypt.
“As institutional participation deepens, volatility is likely to continue compressing, while Bitcoin’s exposure to monetary debasement supports persistently low correlations to most major asset classes, enhancing portfolio diversification,” the report reads.
A Probability-Based Approach to Bitcoin’s Long-Term Value
Unlike short-term price targets, the CF Benchmarks model looks a decade ahead and assigns probabilities to different adoption scenarios.
In its base-case projection, Bitcoin reaches $1.42 million per coin by 2035, representing a gain of more than 1,500% from current levels. Under that scenario, Bitcoin would account for roughly 33% of gold’s total market value and deliver an estimated annual return of 30.1%, the report said.
Such a valuation would place Bitcoin firmly alongside, though not fully replacing, gold as a dominant global store of value.
Why Institutions Matter More Than Ever
One of the central assumptions behind the model is rising institutional participation. As pension funds, asset managers, corporations, and sovereign entities increase exposure, analysts expect Bitcoin’s historically sharp price swings to gradually moderate.
That reduced volatility, the analysts argue, could make Bitcoin more palatable to conservative capital and reinforce its legitimacy as a long-term asset rather than a speculative trade.
The report also highlights Bitcoin’s potential role as a hedge against currency debasement, particularly in an era of elevated government debt and persistent inflation concerns. If Bitcoin remains less correlated with traditional assets such as equities and bonds, its appeal in diversified portfolios could strengthen further.
Greater regulatory clarity, deeper liquidity, and wider institutional acceptance are also cited as structural tailwinds that could support Bitcoin’s long-term value.
How High Could Bitcoin Go in a Bull Case?
The model does not stop at a single forecast. In its bullish scenario, Bitcoin’s price could surge to $2.95 million per coin by 2035, assuming it becomes a widely accepted global store of value with strong institutional and government-level adoption, according to Decrypt.
At that level, Bitcoin would rival gold not just as an alternative asset, but as a core pillar of the global financial system.
The Bear Case Still Sees Massive Growth
Even the model’s bear case assumes substantial appreciation.
If Bitcoin grows more slowly, broadly in line with its historical trend, the cryptocurrency would still reach around $637,000 per coin by 2035. That would place its market value at roughly 16% of gold’s total market capitalisation. This level would still mark Bitcoin as one of the most valuable financial assets in the world.
How This Compares With Other Bitcoin Mega-Forecasts
The CF Benchmarks projections broadly align with several high-profile long-term Bitcoin forecasts.
Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood has said Bitcoin could reach $1.2 million by 2030, though that figure is lower than her earlier estimate of $1.5 million. Ark has also outlined a scenario in which Bitcoin could climb as high as $2.4 million by 2030, according to its “Big Ideas” report.
Strategy chairman Michael Saylor has said he expects Bitcoin to hit $1 million within four to eight years, and has argued it could eventually move toward $20 million over a longer time horizon if it continues to deliver annual gains of around 30%, as per Decrypt.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has also publicly supported the idea that Bitcoin could eventually reach multi-million-dollar valuations as adoption expands.
A Long View on Bitcoin’s Next Decade
While the forecasts remain speculative by nature, the growing convergence around seven-figure Bitcoin price targets reflects a broader shift in how the asset is perceived, from an experimental digital currency to a potential cornerstone of the global financial system.
Whether Bitcoin ultimately reaches $600,000, $1.4 million, or nearly $3 million by 2035 may depend less on hype and more on adoption, regulation, and its ability to hold trust at scale.
