The Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf (GCC-Stat) has forecast a robust economic outlook for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, predicting consistent GDP growth and stable inflation rates through 2026.
Economic Growth Forecasts
- 2024: The GCC’s GDP at constant prices is projected to grow by 3.7%, driven by increased oil production and expanding non-oil sectors.
- 2025: Growth is expected to accelerate to 4.5% as OPEC+ continues liberalizing production quotas and gas field developments progress.
- 2026: Growth will stabilize at 3.5%, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and economic diversification strategies.
The non-oil sector is forecast to grow by 4.5% in 2024, maintaining momentum with projected increases of 3.3% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, fueled by private sector expansion and infrastructure development.
Key Drivers of Growth
- Energy Sector Expansion:
- Gradual liberalization of OPEC+ oil production quotas.
- Development of new gas fields across the region.
- Diversification Initiatives:
- Investments in renewable energy, technology, innovation, and manufacturing industries.
- Sectoral Recovery:
- Significant recovery in transportation, tourism, and retail sectors, supported by expansionary fiscal policies.
- Private Sector Activity:
- Accelerated growth in tourism, transportation, and storage industries.
2023 Economic Review
- GDP Growth:
The GCC’s GDP at constant prices reached $1,691.8 billion in 2023, recording a 0.5% growth over 2022. The non-oil sector grew by 3.3%. - Per Capita GDP:
The average per capita GDP at current prices fell by 5%, reaching $36,700 compared to $38,600 in 2022, reflecting adjustments in global economic conditions. - Global Contribution:
GCC countries contributed 2% to global GDP and accounted for 60.5% of total Arab GDP in 2023.
2024-2026 Inflation Projections:
Inflation rates are expected to stabilize at 2.4%, 2.6%, and 2.1% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively.
Key Inflation Drivers:
- Rising consumer prices and raw material costs.
- Increased public spending driven by higher employment, wages, and household incomes.
- Stabilizing effects of global monetary policies, particularly from the U.S. and EU.
The GCC’s positive economic trajectory underscores the success of ongoing diversification and energy initiatives. With steady growth in both oil and non-oil sectors, coupled with stable inflation rates, the region is well-positioned to sustain its economic resilience.