Tesla Surges Past Estimates As Expiring Tax Credit Drives Record Deliveries

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Tesla posted a stronger-than-expected rebound in third-quarter deliveries, reversing a steep sales slump as U.S. buyers rushed to claim a $7,500 federal tax credit before its expiration.

The electric-vehicle maker reported global deliveries of 497,099 vehicles for the quarter, a 7.4% increase from a year earlier and a record high. The result handily beat analyst estimates of 456,000 vehicles and marked a sharp turnaround from declines earlier this year.

The surge was driven in part by the expiration of the EV tax credit at the end of September, which pulled forward U.S. demand. Tesla also reported a 9% increase in deliveries of its Model 3 and Model Y, although sales of other models declined by 30%.

This was a clear beat driven by expiring incentives and improved execution. The question is whether Tesla can maintain this momentum without the tax credit.

Tesla’s energy division also set a record, with energy storage deployments nearly doubling to 12.5 gigawatt hours. Still, automotive revenue, which accounts for the bulk of Tesla’s business, has declined this year amid softening EV demand and a consumer backlash linked to CEO Elon Musk’s polarizing public persona.

Musk, who recently became the first person to reach a $500 billion net worth according to Forbes, has since stepped back from a short-lived position in the Trump administration and returned his focus to Tesla. Shareholders are set to vote next month on a new $1 trillion pay package intended to keep Musk engaged through the company’s next growth phase.

Tesla is pivoting toward autonomous vehicles and robotics amid a cooling EV market. The company recently launched robotaxi trials in Austin and the Bay Area and plans to begin production of its dedicated Cybercab as early as next year.

The delivery results align with broader trends in the automotive industry. Both General Motors and Ford reported 8% U.S. sales growth in the third quarter, fueled by record EV and hybrid sales. Rivian, the second-largest EV-only automaker, posted a 32% delivery increase.

Tesla shares were slightly lower in Thursday’s trading after rising in the premarket session. The stock remains near all-time highs, up 21% this year.

The company will report full third-quarter earnings on Oct. 22, offering further insight into profitability and demand outlook as it navigates a post-incentive market.