A senior U.S. official says negotiations to end the Ukraine war are nearing the finish line, with only two major issues left unresolved. But the remaining obstacles, control of the Donbas region and the future of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, are among the most complex and politically sensitive of the conflict.
How Close Is a Deal?
Keith Kellogg, the outgoing U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine, said efforts to reach a political settlement are “in the last 10 metres,” calling the final phase “the hardest.”
“We’re really, really close,” Kellogg said at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California, adding that a breakthrough hinges on agreement over territory and nuclear safety.
The Two Core Sticking Points
1. The Donbas Region
- Donetsk and Luhansk have been at the heart of the conflict since 2014.
- Russia currently controls all of Luhansk and more than 80% of Donetsk.
- Any deal will need to address whether these territories remain under Russian control, gain special status, or return to Ukraine.
2. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
- Europe’s largest nuclear facility.
- Occupied by Russian forces since 2022.
- Under leaked U.S. draft proposals, the plant would be restarted under IAEA supervision, with power output shared equally between Russia and Ukraine.
This aspect remains highly sensitive due to safety concerns and its symbolic importance.
The Scale of the War
The conflict, Europe’s deadliest since World War II, has caused catastrophic losses. Kellogg said combined casualties now exceed 2 million, including both dead and wounded. Neither Ukraine nor Russia releases reliable figures, and both sides accuse the other of inflating losses.
How Much Territory Does Russia Control?
As of now, Moscow holds 19.2% of Ukraine, including:
- Crimea (annexed in 2014)
- All of Luhansk
- Majority of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson
- Portions of Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Dnipro regions
Where Do Peace Proposals Stand?
A leaked set of U.S. draft proposals last month alarmed Kyiv and some European governments. Critics said the documents appeared to concede:
- Russian control over a fifth of Ukraine
- Limitations on Ukraine’s military
- Restrictions on future NATO membership
The Kremlin says the proposals have since been divided into four parts, but the contents remain undisclosed.
Diplomatic Engagement Intensifies
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he held a “substantive” phone call with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump adviser Jared Kushner. The Kremlin has suggested that Kushner is expected to take a leading role in shaping the potential agreement.
Negotiations continue quietly behind closed doors. While Kellogg insists a deal is within reach, the unresolved issues, territory and nuclear control strike at the core of both countries’ wartime objectives. Any compromise could reshape Europe’s security landscape for decades.
