Global markets weekly outlook remains constructive, with equities pushing higher while commodities and currencies reflect a more cautious undertone, according to Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial.
Valecha noted that U.S. equities are extending their rally, with the S&P 500 on track to gain over 3 percent this week, marking a third consecutive week of advances. The index has broken above the key 7,000 level and is currently consolidating near record highs around 7,050.
The Nasdaq, meanwhile, is witnessing a strong momentum phase, recording its longest winning streak since 2017. Gains have been led by technology stocks, with the “Magnificent 7” index nearing a full recovery of its losses earlier this year.
Market breadth has improved significantly, with the proportion of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average rising to 53 percent from 30 percent at the start of the month, indicating a healthier and broader-based rally.
On the commodities front, Valecha highlighted that oil prices remain elevated despite easing fears around immediate geopolitical escalation. Brent crude is hovering near $100 per barrel, while WTI is trading around $93.
He pointed to a notable divergence between physical and futures markets, with refiners paying significantly higher prices for immediate supply compared to futures contracts, signaling tight availability in the short term.
“Futures markets are in backwardation and are seeing historically large price gaps during the current war,” Valecha noted, underlining the structural tightness in oil markets.
In precious metals, gold continues to show resilience, trading near $4,788 and heading toward a fourth consecutive weekly gain. Valecha emphasized that gold remains technically supported above its short-term moving averages, with geopolitical risks continuing to underpin demand.
Silver is trading around $78.48, maintaining a stable range, with technical resistance near the upper boundary of its current channel.
Valecha also flagged supply-side dynamics as a potential catalyst, noting that disruptions to gold and silver imports in India could tighten availability ahead of seasonal demand, particularly as Akshaya Tritiya approaches.
In currency markets, the U.S. dollar is showing modest strength, supported by lingering uncertainty. However, Valecha described the outlook as “binary,” with a further escalation of geopolitical tensions likely to strengthen the dollar, while progress in peace talks could weigh on it.
The dollar index is currently consolidating within a narrow range, reflecting a wait-and-watch approach among investors.
Overall, Valecha highlighted that markets are navigating a delicate balance between optimism and caution. While equities are pricing in easing tensions, commodities and currencies continue to reflect underlying risks.
The near-term direction, he suggested, will depend heavily on geopolitical developments, particularly around ceasefire negotiations and the reopening of key energy routes.
Markets Rally As Ceasefire Hopes Lift Equities, Oil Stays Elevated: Vijay Valecha
Staff reporter
Global markets weekly outlook remains constructive, with equities pushing higher while commodities and currencies reflect a more cautious undertone, according to Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial.
Valecha noted that U.S. equities are extending their rally, with the S&P 500 on track to gain over 3 percent this week, marking a third consecutive week of advances. The index has broken above the key 7,000 level and is currently consolidating near record highs around 7,050.
The Nasdaq, meanwhile, is witnessing a strong momentum phase, recording its longest winning streak since 2017. Gains have been led by technology stocks, with the “Magnificent 7” index nearing a full recovery of its losses earlier this year.
Market breadth has improved significantly, with the proportion of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average rising to 53 percent from 30 percent at the start of the month, indicating a healthier and broader-based rally.
On the commodities front, Valecha highlighted that oil prices remain elevated despite easing fears around immediate geopolitical escalation. Brent crude is hovering near $100 per barrel, while WTI is trading around $93.
He pointed to a notable divergence between physical and futures markets, with refiners paying significantly higher prices for immediate supply compared to futures contracts, signaling tight availability in the short term.
“Futures markets are in backwardation and are seeing historically large price gaps during the current war,” Valecha noted, underlining the structural tightness in oil markets.
In precious metals, gold continues to show resilience, trading near $4,788 and heading toward a fourth consecutive weekly gain. Valecha emphasized that gold remains technically supported above its short-term moving averages, with geopolitical risks continuing to underpin demand.
Silver is trading around $78.48, maintaining a stable range, with technical resistance near the upper boundary of its current channel.
Valecha also flagged supply-side dynamics as a potential catalyst, noting that disruptions to gold and silver imports in India could tighten availability ahead of seasonal demand, particularly as Akshaya Tritiya approaches.
In currency markets, the U.S. dollar is showing modest strength, supported by lingering uncertainty. However, Valecha described the outlook as “binary,” with a further escalation of geopolitical tensions likely to strengthen the dollar, while progress in peace talks could weigh on it.
The dollar index is currently consolidating within a narrow range, reflecting a wait-and-watch approach among investors.
Overall, Valecha highlighted that markets are navigating a delicate balance between optimism and caution. While equities are pricing in easing tensions, commodities and currencies continue to reflect underlying risks.
The near-term direction, he suggested, will depend heavily on geopolitical developments, particularly around ceasefire negotiations and the reopening of key energy routes.
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