India’s southwest monsoon is expected to be weaker than previously projected this year, with the India Meteorological Department lowering its seasonal rainfall forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), raising fresh concerns over agriculture, rural demand, and food inflation.
In its second-stage long-range forecast released on Friday, the IMD revised its outlook downward from the 92% estimate issued in April, placing the 2026 monsoon firmly in the “below normal” category.
The weather agency also warned that weak El Niño conditions are likely to emerge from June and could strengthen during the latter half of the monsoon season, particularly between July and September, the most critical months for rainfall distribution across the country.
According to the IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, El Niño is expected to become more firmly established during the core monsoon months, increasing the risk of rainfall deficiencies across several regions.
The forecast marks India’s first expected monsoon shortfall in three years and comes at a time when policymakers are already monitoring inflationary pressures linked to higher global energy prices and geopolitical tensions.
The southwest monsoon accounts for nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall and remains critical for agriculture, reservoir replenishment, hydropower generation, and rural incomes. Economists warn that prolonged rainfall deficits could affect crop production, water availability, and food prices.
Climate agencies have increasingly flagged the risk of El Niño intensifying through the second half of 2026. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology recently warned that the phenomenon could formally develop by June, while global forecasting agencies have assigned a high probability to its continuation through the year.
Although some regions could still receive near-normal rainfall, the IMD cautioned that rainfall distribution is likely to remain uneven, with parts of central, western, and northwestern India potentially facing greater deficits if El Niño conditions strengthen further.
Analysts said the revised forecast will be closely watched by policymakers, commodity markets, and agricultural sectors given the monsoon’s outsized influence on India’s nearly US$4 trillion economy.
